WEEKLY TRENDSETTER (JAN 3,2025)
| 2024 | DEC 20 | DEC 27 | Ch % |
| NIFTY | 23587 | 23813 | 0.96 |
| BANK NIFTY | 50579 | 51311 | 1.45 |
| USD/INR | 85.02 | 85.49 | 0.55 |
MARKET REVIEW-The Christmas week saw some recovery but gains were not sustained and the market closed below 24000 again and also below the 200 -dma which has now started to feel the pressure. The rupee also played spoilsport and it closed at an all-time high. Going into New Year there are worries on the horizon and the result season followed by the Union budget will provide the cues for direction of the market.
INTERESTING CUES
Record IPOs expected in 2025
2024 was a watershed year for IPOs which also saw secondary markets giving up gains towards the end of the year. The year saw a whopping 1.58 trillion raised from IPO s which was 2.5 times more than the funds raised in 2023.The coming year could see this crossing 2 trillion as appetite for issues is on the rise. FPIs are continuously pulling out funds from the secondary market, but they were net buyers in the primary market in 2024. Due to the fair pricing and reasonable valuations, FPIs’ attention was drawn towards IPOs (including the QIB route), and they have invested Rs 1.03 trillion as of November 2024.Going ahead it is expected that this coming from new-age sectors such as quick commerce, EV, and auto-tech.
Rupee hits new low
Even as the rupee hit a new low, RBI intervention was absent which probably could be due to the fact that Asian peers have seen depreciation in their currencies upto 2.5% on an average as against the rupee depreciation of around 1.75%. Export competitiveness could be another factor why support is not forthcoming. Forex reserves are already down by $60 bn from an all-time high of $704 bn.
NIFTY –The index has been testing the 200-dma repeatedly. It closed below that for the week. The recent low of 23537 in the previous week comes under threat. Levels of 23675 will be the first level to watch out. On the higher side the index needs to close above 24000 to provide some relief and hope to the bulls.
BANK NIFTY-The index is still trading above the 200 -dma of 50580 and showing relative strength. However, it has already tested it twice in the recent past which will not be comforting for bulls. On the higher side levels of 51600 and above has seen selling pressure. The performance of the 2 private majors will be in focus as they have provided the critical support to the index.
STOCK PICKS
INFY (1917)-The stock touched an all time high of 2007 before some profit-taking. Buying could be considered around levels of 1870. With the sector also witnessing a good momentum, the scrip could see levels past 2000 in the coming days.
IPCA Labs (1631)-The scrip has seen buying at lower levels and has been an outperformer in the last 3 months. It touched an all time high of 1709 in Oct. Buying could be considered around 1600-20 for possible levels of 1750-1800 in the coming weeks.
Wishing all readers a very happy 2025 and pray it brings cheer to your familiess!
Note: Any queries /clarifications may be addressed to stockmasala@gmail.com .
Krish Subramanyam