WEEKLY TRENDSETTER (MARCH 5TH ,2021)
| 2021 | Feb 26th | March7th | Ch % |
| NIFTY | 14529 | 14938 | 2.81 |
| BANK NIFTY | 34803 | 35228 | 1.22 |
| USD/INR | 73.91 | 73.07 | -0.84 |
Another volatile week and the close was not as good as it promised to be in the early part of the week.This divergence was again caused by another round of selling in the US markets.However,going into next week its mirroring the action of the previous week as US markets recovered well on Friday .The all-time high of 15431 has been proving elusive in the past couple of weeks .Caution needs to be exercised at higher levels .
WHAT DOES THE COMING WEEK HOLD?
1.The PLI scheme of the Govt is gathering steam and in the coming months this could turn out to be a game changer for several industries like chemicals ,fertilisers ,essential commodities ,etc which could enable producers to enjoy greater economies of scale and increase exports .
2.There was lot of debate on the co-existence of a rising equity market with a hardening interest rates scenario and comparisons with 2003-07 period was being done .In terms of interest rates we are almost at the end of low interest rate cycle and are at the same juncture we were in 2003-04. As far as equity markets go the Nifty touched a low of 920 in June 2003 following up with a high of 2014 by March 2004 and then the sharp surge to 6357 in Jan 2008 .
However when we see it from a P/E angle ,there is a lot of divergence .In June 2003 the Nifty P/E was at 12-13 and when the market peaked in Jan 2008 it touched 25-26 !!.However , as far as the current Nifty P/E goes it stands at 39-40 !! So comparisons between the two periods and any similarity ends here !
3.Last week the Nifty support was cited at 14400. The early part of the coming week could see 15100-15200 re-visited and the progress further could be challenging .
On a personal note it was a satisfying week as I emerged winner of an exciting contest between winners of the last 3 months !.Hope readers follow the show which actually show cases the returns captured live and could give early signals to traders/investors .
Wishing all readers, a great trading week! Great opportunities are emerging outside the large cap space! Trade light and look out for bargain counters!
Krish Subramanyam