WEEKLY TRENDSETTER (JAN 6TH ,2023)
| 2022 | DEC 23 | DEC 30 | Ch % |
| NIFTY | 17806 | 18105 | 1.68 |
| BANK NIFTY | 41668 | 42986 | 3.16 |
| USD/INR | 82.83 | 82.75 | -0.10 |
MARKET REVIEW–The week began on a cautious note but bulls took control and finally both indices closed with decent gains for the week. On an yearly basis the Nifty closed with gains of 4.33 % which is commendable in the background of the global cues which clearly were not favourable towards equities with the Russia -Ukrain war persisting for the whole year starting from Feb, 2022.The banking counters hogged the limelight with the index gaining a whopping 21% and PSU banks were the toast of traders and investors alike.
INTERESTING CUES
Defence, aerospace exports treble in 5 years
This sector has seen the benefits of “Atmanirbhar Bharat “initiatives of the Govt in the last 5 year. While imports of defence equipments have risen 35% from Rs 37030 cr in FY17-18 to Rs 50061 cr in FY21-22, exports have risen 173% from Rs 4682 cr to Rs 12815 cr during the period. This pace of import substitution should see further acceleration in the coming years. The 2 defence corridors established in UP and Tamil Nadu have gone a long way in this progress.
Pharma industry could see better times in 2023
The FY22 exports of pharma stood at $24. 62bn.While the April-Oct of the current FY saw a modest growth of 4.62% against the corresponding previous period, Nov saw a 12% jump and the trend is expected to continue for the rest of the year and FY22-23 could see exports at $27 bn,which would be the all-time high. The maximum growth of 14.2% has come from Europe
MARKET OUTLOOK
Some technical cues are as follows going by market trends: –
NIFTY –The market enters the New Year after a resilient 2022 when Indian equities outperformed their global peers despite underperformance seen from IT, pharma, and metals. Going into the New Year expectations are high as the Nifty touched an all-time high in Dec after which market cooled down. As always, the first 3 months of the New Year could be volatile with the Union Budget due on Feb 1. Any near-term correction should see support emerging around 17500 and upside could be capped at 19100 before budget.
BANK NIFTY-The index has seen outperformance from the PSU banks whereas the private sector banks have been subdued. The index should find support around 37000 on any correction and on the upside levels of 45000 could be seen. Higher levels could see some profit-taking particularly in PSU banks which looked stretched in the near term while the broader trend looks strong.
PICKS FOR 2023
LARGE CAPS
CIPLA (1075) -The scrip has been a relative out-performer in the sector and touched life-time high in Nov before correcting. The year saw repeated profit-booking at higher levels while support emerged around 950. The rising trend could continue in the coming year as well and levels of 1200-1250 could be seen.
BANK OF BARODA-(186)-The scrip has seen a stellar run in 2022 and buying momentum could continue in the coming months. While levels of 160-70 should provide decent buying support, the scrip could be expected to touch levels of 240-50 in the coming months.
MID -CAP AND SMALL CAP
Oriental Aromatics (418)-The stock saw a huge run up in the 2020-21 period and touched a high of 1148.Since then it has seen a deep correction and touched a critical support level of 370.The scrip could be considered for accumulation for an upside target of 600 in the coming months.
HSCL (100)-This scrip saw a strong breakout in mid-2022 past levels of 65-70 and touched a high of 108 before a modest correction. It now looks poised to retest 108 in the coming weeks and could steadily move towards 130-35. Accumulation could be considered at declines.
Wishing all readers a very Happy New Year with good health, peace and prosperity !
Note: Any queries /clarifications may be addressed to stockmasala@gmail.com .
Krish Subramanyam