WEEKLY TRENDSETTER (JUNE 18th ,2021)
| 2021 | JUNE 11 | JUNE 18 | Ch % |
| NIFTY | 15799 | 15683 | -0.73 |
| BANK NIFTY | 35047 | 34558 | -1.40 |
| USD/INR | 73.06 | 73.94 | 1.20 |
MARKET REVIEW –It turned out to be a volatile week with the market reacting to news flow like spiking of domestic inflation, hawkish Fed commentary, spike in crude and finally weakening of the rupee. The US markets also stumbled along the way and that was enough to trigger a market sell off towards close of week.
REVIEW OF RESULTS (MARCH QTR)
The result season is slowly coming to an end and focus this week is on some outstanding performance for the March quarter.
Rs in cr, Bracket indicates ch in %
| Company | Revenue | Net profit |
| Trigyn Tech | 258(+9.6) | 12.4(282) |
| BCL Inds | 430(+91.9) | 13.3(+281) |
| TVS Motor | 6132(+49) | 317(274) |
| Gokaldas Export | 370(3.9) | 16(+169) |
TRIGN TECH (130)-This company was a high flyer in the 2000 tech boom. Subsequently, erratic results eroded market attention. However, FY 21 has seen a consistent performance in all quarters and the company has posted an EPS of 21. Interestingly there is a Covid led performance here! Since 2015 the company has developed unique expertise in the area of Vaccination Supply Change Management. In 2020 in response to the pandemic, Trigyn played a key role in developing the IT systems and tools used to manage one of the largest population vaccination programs in the world. Working with the United Nations Development Program, Trigyn has developed expertise in vaccine program management systems including the development of a solution currently being used to manage the distribution, administration and documentation of COVID-19. The company also provides IT, professional and administrative staffing and consultancy services. Clearly a compelling case for re-evaluation!
BCL Inds (215) -The company has had a phenomenal quarter in the edible oil segment with a significant increase in the revenues. This is due to the increase in the demand for the company’s homogenous brands and the increase in the global edible oil prices. The company is confidant of the trend to continue. The revenue from the edible oil segment for the quarter was Rs 322.39cr. Besides the company also has a distillery business supplying ethanol and hand sanitisers, which has huge potential going forward post Covid. With an EPS of Rs 19 for FY20-21, the stock is still attractively priced.
TVS Motors (610)-The management was confidant of achieving double digit EBIDTA margin and finally this was achieved in the March 21.Difficult domestic market conditions has forced the company to make inroads into the international markets and this has shown an encouraging trend .In May 21 the company exported 1.14 lac units as against 17707 units in May 20 .In April 21’ as well the company exported 1.14 units .Infact for the first time two-wheeler exports from India exceeded domestic sales for the industry as a whole .Encouraging trend indeed !
Gokaldas Exports (140)-The company sequentially posted the best quarter for the year. This was thanks to its entry into the PPE segment which saw huge demand getting triggered due to Covid. Besides the company has also seen revival in demand in the international markets on which it is hugely dependent. The company is into manufacture of womenswear, outerwear, and sportswear. With an EPS of Rs 9 for the year, prospects look bright.
MARKET OUTLOOK.
1.The rupee weakening resulted in a shift of focus to pharma and IT. The same is likely to continue till some stability returns to the rupee. Mid- cap and small caps could consolidate and with encouraging cues from fertilizer, agrochemicals, paper and sugar sectors opportunities are plenty.
2.The Nifty shed some gains on the brink of touching 16000 and closed with a minor loss. To begin with global cues are not encouraging for the next week. Dow shed 500 points on Friday and this could cast a shadow on emerging markets. The Nifty could see a decline up to 15300-400 levels in the coming week. Any attempt to cross 15800 could see profit -taking. Thus, the band has got reduced to 15400-800. Accordingly, market should be approached.
Some technical cues are as follows going by market trends
Scrips to watch out
Rallis (344)-The scrip is on the verge of a huge breakout from the 340-50 range and has attracted buying interest at lower levels. Levels of 375-80 could be expected in the coming weeks.
BEML (1372)-After being in the 1300-1375 range the scrip has potential to scale past this upper resistance and could see levels of 1450-1500 in the coming days.
Some optimism is returning on gradual re-opening of the economy. While the scars of Covid will take long to heal, life goes on as the human race continues on a progressive path!
Have a great trading week!
Krish Subramanyam