WEEKLY TRENDSETTER (MARCH 7,2025)
| 2025 | FEB 21 | FEB 28 | Ch % |
| NIFTY | 22796 | 22124 | -2.95 |
| BANK NIFTY | 48981 | 48344 | -1.30 |
| USD/INR | 86.71 | 87.38 | +0.77 |
MARKET REVIEW-The week began on a weak note followed by 2 days of range bound market. However, the worst was saved for the last day of the week and the first day of the March series when the Nifty lost over 400 points. Broader market losses were even worse as many scrips tumbled to 52-week lows and portfolios have now seen a serious damage in the last few months.
INTERESTING CUES
SIP’s drop sharply
The SIP stoppage ratio rose sharply to 83% in Dec 24 against 51% in July 24. The number of SIPs closed also increased to 45 lacs from 37 lac in the same period. Despite rise in cancellations, overall SIP inflows remain strong at 2.37 lac cr so far this year surpassing the last fiscal inflow by 19%.
SEBI proposes revamp in index composition
The regulator is proposing that only indices with at least 14 stocks should be eligible.
It also wants to ensure no single stock dominates an index—so the top three stocks together can’t have more than 45% weight, and no single stock can have more than 20%.This sharply brings into focus the Bank Nifty where the weightage of HDFC Bank stands at 28.9.%.Even in Nifty the weightage is at 13.28%.This has largely distorted the balance in the indices in recent times where an isolated positive movement in HDFC Bank has arrested the slide particularly in the Bank Nifty.
NIFTY –The breach of the band of 22800-23000 saw a swift slide in the index and was steeper than expected as it finally closed at 22124. Th first day of the March series saw a sharp crack of over 400 points as no sector was spared in a brutal sell off. In the very near term the index looks oversold and some bounce back could be expected to levels of 22400-500.
BANK NIFTY-The index was smartly managed as high weightage HDFC Bank gained 1.5% over the week which was enough to ensure that the index could stay afloat above 48000. However, most of the banking counters also bore the brunt of selling particularly the PSU pack and many touched 52-week low. A breach below 48000 could see the index touching levels of 45500-46000.
STOCK PICKS
Tata Consumer (963)-The stock was one of the recent out performers as it rose from 885 to 1075.However, profit taking has taken it down to levels below 1000 and looks heading back to levels below 900.Selling could be considered around 980 -1000.
Wishing all readers a great week ahead!
Note: Any queries /clarifications may be addressed to stockmasala@gmail.com .
Krish Subramanyam